Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. The final 2022 House ratings fromSplit Ticket, a political content and mapping site produced by #ElectionTwitter veterans @thomas_armin, @HWLavelleMaps,@lxeagle17, and @macrotargeting. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. Alaska. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? Notice any bugs or missing polls? that guide every prediction he makes. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. Colorado. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. You can also view these ratings as a table. Our forecast has three versions. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. 49 -1. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. Hover over a district for more information. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. Full election results. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. Read the analysis ($). Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. . If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan were held on November 8, 2022, to elect representatives for the thirteen seats in Michigan (reduced from 14 in the redistricting cycle following the 2020 United States census).The deadline for candidates to file for the August 2 primary was April 19. The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Falls County 82nd District Court, Lee Hall Lynching, Joseph Sutton Son Of Frank Sutton, Articles OTHER